The New York Times has a Sunday piece ostensibly about Democratic plans to restore the Office of the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, but the piece serves as a good overall roadmap for Democratic oversight priorities. Oversight. Remember that?
--David Kurtz
Let me use this post to take care of a few bits of TPM housekeeping.
First, a couple months ago, I introduced TPM Reader DK and explained why, for the time being, he needed to remain anonymous. As I wrote then, DK was a lawyer at a law firm in the midwest. And frankly commenting on the politics of the day under his own name just wasn't compatible with the day job.
A few weeks ago, however, DK's professional situation has changed. And he and I are both glad he can start blogging here under his own name: David Kurtz. You'll see him now blogging with the new byline. And he'll probably say about more on this on his own.
Second, we kept our collective TPM nose to the grindstone pre-election. But we've got major expansion plans that, if all goes according to plan, we'll be rolling out over the next couple months. You've probably seen how TPM has evolved other the last year. So we'll be building on that. The proprietor in a case like this is supposed to say how he or she is really excited about all the new stuff coming. But, no, really, I'm really excited about the new stuff we have in store for you. So keep your eyes open for updates on that front.
Finally, I've got some family matters to attend to. You'll see my byline showing up on a fair number of posts here at TPM. But over the next two weeks there will likely be a few stretches of time when I'm just not available at all. So when I'm away the rest of the TPM team -- Paul, Justin, Greg, David et al. -- will fill the gap.
--Josh Marshall
From the department of aggressive spin ...
Although some glitz has come off Mr Rove, Republicans have been more eager to blame botched campaigns and individual ethics scandals. “Bob Sherwood’s seat [in Pennsylvania] would have been overwhelmingly ours, if his mistress hadn’t whined about being throttled,” said Mr Norquist. Any lessons from the campaign? “Yes. The lesson should be, don’t throttle mistresses.”
I guess it would at least be a start.
--Josh Marshall
Kevin Drum has set about busting some of the exit poll myths that have already stuck themselves like barnacles to the midterm election results. Here's the CliffsNotes version:
Myth #1: It was the youth vote that pushed Democrats over the top.Myth #2: Democrats won a third of the white evangelical vote.
Myth #3: Democrats won by running conservative candidates.
Myth #2 is the one that gets me. Kevin says he has no idea where that one came from, which at first struck me as odd because the one-third figure has been widely reported, including here at TPM, based on an AP story the evening of Election Day.
But look at the key paragraph in the AP piece:
Those early exit polls also showed that three in four voters said corruption was very important to their vote, and they tended to vote Democratic. In a sign of a dispirited GOP base, most white evangelicals said corruption was very important to their vote — and almost a third of them turned to the Democrats.
I, too, first read that as saying one-third of evangelicals voted Democratic. But what I think it's actually saying is that one-third of those evangelicals who said corruption was very important to their vote went for the Democrats.
Mystery solved? Kevin's entire post is here.
--David Kurtz
Back to business:
Federal investigators have resumed their inquiry into a rental deal between U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) and a nonprofit agency, issuing new subpoenas in the days after he was elected to a full six-year term, according to a government source.
--David Kurtz
You get the sense from the GOP that in its analysis of the election results the congressional seats lost due to Republican ties to public corruption shouldn't really count. Sort of like losing the game not because you got beat but because the refs made a bad call.
I think most people would view bribery, influence peddling, and sexually predatory congressmen as substantive problems, not mere technicalities. Maybe that's just me.
For its part, the White House would like to portray the corruption issue as a congressional problem. In his press conference, the President said, "People want their Congress -- congressmen to be honest and ethical." (That comment came just after the point in the press conference where he acknowledged deliberately misleading reporters the week before when he said he intended to keep Don Rumsfeld on after the election.)
For his part, Karl Rove was surprised by the significance of corruption in the election outcome:
"The profile of corruption in the exit polls was bigger than I'd expected," Rove tells TIME. "Abramoff, lobbying, Foley and Haggard [the disgraced evangelical leader] added to the general distaste that people have for all things Washington, and it just reached critical mass."
One can forgive Rove his surprise. He was too close to the problem to see it for what it was. Funny how he describes it now like a detached observer of the passing scene, with the perspective of a political scientist. Let's take this apart, starting with Rove's old buddy Jack Abramoff.
By one account Rove arranged to meet Abramoff on DC street corners so as to avoid being detected by the White House visitors logs. Rove hired his former personal assistant, Susan Ralston, away from Abramoff, and just a month before the election she was forced to resign her White House position due to her contacts with Abramoff while at the White House. A congressional committee found evidence of 485 contacts between the White House and Abramoff and his lobbying team.
Foley, you may recall, was strong-armed by Rove into running for re-election, with Rove threatening to torpedo Foley's plans to start a lobbying practice after leaving Congress unless he ran again in 2006. (No evidence has emerged that Rove or the White House had any knowledge of Foley's page problem at that time.) Haggard, as is now widely known, was one of Rove's main contacts within the evangelical community, a regular participant in weekly conference calls with the White House political shop headed up by Rove.
And we've just begun to scratch the surface. There's Rove's involvement in the Plame scandal, and the RNC's involvement in the New Hampshire phone-jamming case. I could go on, but I think the point here is clear: Rove was and is the architect of a political machine that was probably corrupt from its inception and is certainly corrupt now.
The corruption manifests itself in everything from bribery (Duke Cunningham and Bob Ney) to influence-peddling (Abramoff) to the broader corruption of traditional conservative principles (budget earmarks and deficit spending).
That's not a lesson Republicans seem to be taking from this election.
--David Kurtz
For our older readers, from TPM Reader PS:
Was anyone besides me delighted to note that the last two Republican senators to concede were Burns and Allen?Say goodnight, Gracie.
As an aside, when I was waiting tables in college, I once had the pleasure of serving George Burns a martini. Something I'll never forget.
--David Kurtz
Meanwhile, back in Pakistan:
Two months ago, Pakistan's president, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, triumphantly announced a peace pact with Islamic extremists in the North Waziristan tribal district near the Afghan border, saying he hoped it would become a model for curbing domestic Islamic militancy and cross-border insurgent attacks in Afghanistan.Today that model lies in shreds. Northwestern Pakistan's fragile political peace has been shattered by two devastating attacks: a government missile strike that killed 82 people at an Islamic school in the Bajaur tribal district on Oct. 30, and a retaliatory suicide bombing Wednesday that killed 42 army recruits at a training camp in the Malakand tribal district.
. . .
"This is a disaster. We all recognize the gravity of the situation," said a senior military official in this northwestern provincial capital, speaking on condition of anonymity. "It's a nightmare to have an army being attacked on its own soil and by its own people." After the two incidents, he added, "the doors to peaceful negotiated settlements are closed. I am afraid we are on a war course in the tribal areas."
If you didn't see the Frontline documentary last month on the tribal areas and the internal tensions in Pakistan, you can watch it online.
--David Kurtz
A helpful reminder from TPM Reader MR:
Nice post . . . regarding Rove's . . . last minute PR maneuvering in Michigan, MD, & NJ (ie, your reminder about his near-disaster victory lap in the last days of election 2000). As it turned out you were right on the button, and one has to laugh out loud at the thought that the boy genius threw $$ down the toilet in those three states that could've been very helpful to repubs elsewhere.
Here's the post Josh did last week about Rove sending Bush to California instead of Florida on the last day of the 2000 campaign, a cocky move designed to project confidence that nearly cost Bush the presidency.
You do have to wonder whether Sens. Burns and Allen might have made up their narrow margins of defeat if some of the millions of dollars spent by the national GOP to "enlarge" the playing field for control of the Senate had instead been spent in Montana and Virginia, respectively.
Just goes to show that it's easy to be dubbed a genius so long as you win.
--David Kurtz
For those readers who've written in asking us not to forget about the Republicans' vast robo calling operation in the lead up to the election -- don't worry, we haven't.
Take a look at this, for instance. On Election Day, there were seven very near misses for Democratic candidates in districts that had been bombarded by the harrassing calls. Were the calls the difference?
--Paul Kiel
After the Democrats campaigned to end corruption in Washington, you'd think they would try to promote only squeaky-clean members to fill powerful posts, wouldn't you? Think again.
--Justin Rood
As Atrios points out here, Jon Tester is 'conservative' only if you a) judge political philosophy by indicators as profound as haircuts or b) if your mindset is ruled by cartoonish GOP strawmen. But both apply to most of the chatmeisters, so I guess he's a conservative.
--Josh Marshall
I'm wondering how President Bush is digging all these 'Bush Turns to Pop's Advisors' headlines. We were just chatting here at TPM about what we think of the Gates' nomination. And there are definitely real questions about his record in the 1980s as well as whether his nomination represents a genuine policy change or a time-buying personnel reshuffle. Speaking for myself, it seems like an undeniable step forward simply to be dealing with someone whose past performance and current policy views suggests they are operating in the reality-based universe -- a clear departure from the last six years. It takes a moment of stepping back to take stock of just how clinical our foreign policy has been -- both in concept and execution -- for the first years of this young century.
--Josh Marshall
Meet the new boss...
The Washington Times is reporting that Michael Steele has been asked to be the next Chair of the RNC. Yeah, this guy.
Update: Another reminder about Steele's fitness - the "scarlet letter" incident.
--Paul Kiel
Will Rummy face war crimes charges? That and other news of the day in today's Daily Muck.
--Justin Rood
Did the 'white lie' polling phenomenon help overstate Michael Steele's support in the Maryland senate race.
--Josh Marshall
Tuesday wasn't the first time that Michael Steele had tried to use homeless people to mislead African-American voters.
His campaign did the same thing back in 2002.
--Paul Kiel
So what do you think about the race for Majority Leader? Hoyer v. Murtha? Thoughts? Opinions?
--Josh Marshall
Former Clinton advisor Jeremy Rosner on the Dems' challenge of locking in their gains on national security.
--Paul Kiel
What kind of world do we live in where $9 million can't buy an election?
Swiftboat money man Bob Perry sure did his best this year. But his best just wasn't good enough.
--Paul Kiel
Here's an article or group of articles I'm looking forward to reading. What about the GOP's 29th century, info-gizmofied GOTV system?
My general takeaway from Tuesday is that the Republicans got their vote out. The Dems did too. But then the independents broke overwhelmingly for the Dems.
But I still want to get back to the turnout machine. I've always wondered just how much there was there or whether it was just more of the Bush-Rove confidence mumbojumbo that's had the DC types in its thrall.
Anyone see any good write-ups on this?
--Josh Marshall
National GOP strategists to Washington Post: Blame our loss on the candidates, please.
--Greg Sargent
Here's our rundown of the 10 House seats still undecided. As it stands now, the Dems would get two more seats, and the Republicans probably eight. But that all depends, of course, on how these recounts go.
--Paul Kiel
Some thoughts from Greg Sargent about what Tuesday's results mean for the battles ahead over national security.
--Paul Kiel
Let's not forget about what was probably the most despicable episode on Election Day. Especially as Michael Steele makes a bid for RNC Chairman.
--Paul Kiel
Amazing how bad a campaign the Democrats ended up running, wasn't it? No message, no new ideas? No taking any stands. Another hapless gambit from the gang that couldn't shoot straight.
Oh, wait, right, they crushed the GOP House majority and won control of the senate (by election rather than defection) for the first time in 12 years.
My point here isn't to gloat on the Dems' behalf. And political chatmeisters do routinely impute genius to campaign victories and vice versa. But over the last six+ years, as the capital has fallen under the spell of the Bush-Rove confidence cult, opinions about the Democrats have become particularly fouled by fatuous circular reasoning. And same with the Bush-Rove GOP.
Victory is its own defense. The Republicans won the 2004 election. But only just barely. Not through any particular genius. And, I suspect we'll learn, much less through micro-targetting and data-mining mumbo-jumbo than we'd been led to believe.
The Rumsfeld defenestration justly dominated the news cycle yesterday. But beyond the numbers and policy changes a lot of things are going to need to be rethought in Washington now. A lot of people's conceptual meal tickets just expired.
--Josh Marshall
The recount battle in Florida's 13th District (Katherine Harris' old district) continues to heat up.
An analysis by a local paper on the voting irregularities there shows that the problems likely cost the Democrat the race.
--Paul Kiel
Rep. Sue Kelly (R-NY) lawyers up.
Nowadays when you hear those words about a Republican, it usually means the indictments are soon to follow. But not here. She's looking to challenge her defeat on Tuesday.
--Josh Marshall
Dem Jim Webb to hold a press conference this afternoon to declare victory over George Allen in the Virginia Senate race. Location and time to be announced.
Allen is expected to say something today, too, after the recanvassing of the vote is finished, in "mid to late afternoon," his adviser says.
Meanwhile, the attendants at Webb's campaign are answering the phone with, "Good morning, office of Senator-elect Webb."
--Greg Sargent
Hey, you mucked-up lawmaker: you might have been voted out of Congress, but you're still gonna be in hot water with the Feds. That and other news of the day in today's Daily Muck.
--Justin Rood
Do you like TPM? Would you like to work with us?
We're hiring a DC-based reporter-blogger for a new site we're launching. We are looking for someone who is funny, clever, interested in writing and reporting about politics and the people involved in politics in innovative ways. Journalism experience is a big plus but not an absolute necessity. Most of all I'm looking for someone who can look at what's going on down there with a fresh set of eyes.
TPM Media is a small but rapidly growing company. We work really hard. But we have a lot of fun doing what we do. The salaries are somewhere between reasonable and decent and come with benefits. And the boss is ... let's say, tolerable.
I'm dying to find exactly the right person for this new project. And if it's you, I really want to hear from you. If you're interested, send us an email at the comments address up there on the right. Use the subject heading "TPM Job." Include a resume, names of two references, and a letter explaining why you're interested in the gig, your background or frankly whatever else you think would be helpful for us to know.
--Josh Marshall
Anybody have any entries for the least gracious, most churlish concession speech Tuesday night?
I'm nominating outgoing Rep. Melissa Hart (R-PA). Asked why she got taken down by Jason Altmire, Hart said it was Altmire's horrible negative campaigning ...
“I was not going to play the games. Unfortunately I think that took a toll. In retrospect, I had everyone in Washington, D.C., significant number of my colleagues, call me and say you need to cut his legs off, was the term they used,” Hart said. “And you know what, you don’t need to cut his legs off. He clearly did that his entire campaign, he’s new at this, I that hope he doesn’t do it the next time.”
That's nice.
I actually didn't get the impression this was even a particularly nasty campaign.
Hart, remember, was one of the rubberstamps Hastert and DeLay stacked the Ethics Committee with after they purged the committee early last year.
--Josh Marshall
Okay, it's over. Pretty clear Sen. Allen's (R) going to give up the electoral ghost tomorrow. So it's Senator-elect Webb (D). And it's Majority Leader-to-be Reid (D).
--Josh Marshall
100% of precincts in King County reporting, Darcy Burner is up by about a thousand votes over Rep. Reichert (R) out in WA-8. Overall, it's still Reichert up 51% to 49%.
(ed.note: Thanks to TPM Reader GT for the tip.)
Late Update: The original version of this post incorrectly reported the King County numbers as the numbers for the whole 8th district. Not so.
--Josh Marshall
Will George Allen cave?
Conservative blog Redstate.com calls on Allen not to seek a recount in hard-fought Virginia Senate race.
--Greg Sargent
So here's one question: where do they put the key they just used to lock Dick Cheney back up in that undisclosed location?
--Josh Marshall
George Allen's trailing by about 7,000 votes -- quite a margin to make up in a recount. And it seems that's something the Allen camp has realized.
They say they're still not sure whether they'll call for a recount.
--Paul Kiel
It was a bloodbath for mucked-up candidates last night. Justin Rood gives our tribute to the fallen.
--Paul Kiel
I'm not afraid to say it. At first, the president seemed hesitant and a bit shell-shocked. But then he hit a stride. And all things considered, I think he did reasonably well in that presser. Talk's cheap. And I don't think a leopard changes his spots. But judged on its own terms I think he did reasonably well.
Also, here's the big story: Bob Gates is very much Daddy's guy.
Late Update: TPM Reader JS sees it a bit differently: "Josh, get some sleep that was a meltdown."
--Josh Marshall
Watching this Bush presser, one thing about Republicans: man, they dispatch their dead quickly, don't they? I thought the most revealing line so far of the press conference was when Bush said he still hasn't spoken to Rumsfeld or Gates. The exact phrase was something like 'final conversation'. But I think the meaning there was clear.
Late Update: Okay, I think this presser may actually set a record for open and shut contradictions. But about five minutes after saying he hadn't had his final convos, he just said that he had. In the course of the last few minutes he's also said both that he hadn't decided to replace Rummy pre-election, and that he had. I think he also said he lied to the reporters in the pre-election conversation he had on Rumsfeld.
Later Update: I haven't seen the transcript yet. But a number of readers have written in to say that they think I may have misheard some of the passages in the president's remarks about final conversations and who talked to whom when.
--Josh Marshall
Donald Rumsfeld resigning, according to the AP.
Update: Bush just announced that Robert Gates, the CIA Director under Bush 41, will replace Rumsfeld.
--Paul Kiel
Our TPM intern Eric Kleefeld just pointed out to me that if Joe Courtney's lead holds up in Connecticut 2nd, this election will leave just one Republican congressman in all New England. That's a watershed.
--Josh Marshall
Let's go ahead and pop this balloon before it takes flight.
Ken Mehlman, this morning on Today:
"[W]hen it comes to both the House and the Senate, we obviously always knew this would be a tough year. We had a combination of, not only the fact that it's the 6th year of the President's term, where typically you lose more than 30 seats. Also the nation's at war, where typically you lose seats, as Tim [Russert] pointed out last night. And the fact that a number of members unfortunately were involved in scandal.
Typically lose more than 30 seats? You might guess that Mehlman was not challenged by the Today hosts on this little flight of expectation-lowering fantasy. And it appears to be one of the GOP's morning-after talking points.
Here are the number of House seats lost by the President's party in the 6th year of his presidency during the post-war period. I pulled the numbers from the House website and quickly did the math:
1958: Eisenhower--Republicans lost 48 seats
1986: Reagan--Republicans lost 5 seats
1998: Clinton--Democrats gained 5 seats
So only once in the last half century has the President's party lost more than 30 seats in the second-term midterms.
The 1974 midterms, in which the Republicans lost 48 House seats in the aftermath of Watergate, occurred after Nixon resigned.
Of course, if Mehlman wants to compare the sea-change that followed the dark period of Watergate to the sea-change that occurred yesterday, I have no objections. Quite an apt comparison in many ways.
--David Kurtz
Here's what the Democrats are saying about what to expect in the coming days as the votes are counted in Virginia and Montana.
Update: Election Central has a primer on how recounts work in the two states.
--Paul Kiel
So George Allen has Ed Gillespie to help him try to steal the Virginia election. But seriously, read this post from last night.
And let's also take a look at those voter suppression activities the Allen campaign pulled yesterday, the ones the Feds are already looking at.
--Josh Marshall
TPM Reader CC ...
Following up on another reader's comments on how the MSM has totally absorbed the right's framing of the political conversation:Very frustrating to watch Russert et al. on the morning shows and to hear all the "what ifs" about Democrats in the house turning the place into a circus of hearings, subpoenas, etc. and the prospective difficulties of working with ultraliberal wackadoo Nancy Pelosi.
Why isn't this news presented for what it is -- a blunt rejection of the president, his party, and their conduct of the last few years.
Voters are saying they want accountability and answers to very important questions on Iraq and a host of other issues, something they have been unjustly denied by Bush, Rumsfeld, Cheney, Rice, and co.
If it takes subpoenas to get that accountability and those answers, so be it.
At the moment, I'm going on just a few hours sleep. So a detailed post just isn't in me. But a lot of the names in DC have built their reputations, meal tickets and most importantly their world view around the Republicans. I mean, Mark Halperin needs someone to abase himself to, right? Don't expect that to change overnight. That's a battle to be engaged.
--Josh Marshall
Recount battle brewing in Florida's 13th District. Yes, that's Katherine Harris' district.
--Paul Kiel
Just a note -- we'll be continuing to update our scoreboard throughout the day with the latest results.
As of right now, in addition to the two Senate races, we have 13 House seats that either haven't been called, are going to a recount, or are headed to a runoff.
--Paul Kiel
From The LA Times:
White House allies suggest there is little reason to think Bush and the Democrats will work together. Bush has tied himself closely to conservative movement leaders who bitterly disagree with Democrats for their opposition to tax cuts and to privatizing Social Security — two of the administration's top goals."When we want to go up and they want to go down, we want to go right and they want to go left, there's no compromise," said anti-tax activist Grover Norquist, a close advisor to the White House.
Norquist said the Republicans' primary goal for the next two years should be making the case for GOP control — not bipartisanship.
"Nancy Pelosi will do for the Republicans what [Bill] Clinton did for the Republicans — become the lightning rod to explain that their congressman who they thought was a reasonable guy was really a left-wing wacko," he said.
--Paul Kiel
Want to know whether the Dems will control the Senate? Check back next month.
--Greg Sargent
New numbers out of Montana this morning: With 99% of precincts reporting, Dem Jon Tester's lead over GOP Senator Conrad Burns has now edged up to a total of 1,586 votes.
--Greg Sargent
For a cocky guy who I don't imagine has ever had to sit still for a serious rebuke in his life, I'm really wondering what the take-away is going to be from the press conference he has called for tomorrow at 1 PM. At some level, I think they just want to get him back in front of the cameras quickly, the way a boxer snaps back to his feet when he gets knocked down, just to show he's still in the fight, back in his opponent's face.
But what do you think he'll do?
My best guess is he comes in with a group of his father's cronies, announces that these gents have formed a business consortium and that he's selling them the country.
How about you?
--Josh Marshall
I really gave him a hard time in early 2005. But a big congrats to Harold Ford (D-TN). Tennessee's a really red state. And let's not sidestep the issue: He's a black man running for senate in a southern state. That's a tall order on both counts. He didn't win. But he ran a kick-ass campaign. And he only lost by a couple percentage points. The word going into tonight was that support for Ford had collapsed over the last week and Corker was going to have a solid win.
And let's not let the gauziness of the moment paper over the fact that Corker ran a disgusting race. The guy is a blight on the senate.
--Josh Marshall
TPM Reader EF has their number ...
Republicans' control over our national political narrative cannot be overstated. I can't count the number of times a candidate who wasn't an effete urban sissy was described as being "different that the typical Democrat." Tester, Shuler, Ellsworth, McCaskill, etc., etc. The media has so completely adopted the GOP's cultural frame it's hard to even see it for what it is. We will be running uphill until we address this.
So true. I think Candy Crowley was maybe the worst offender. But, hey, we had CNN on at the office.
--Josh Marshall
Okay, Webb's putting some real numbers on the board now. The margin is up to just under 12,000 votes. That's a steep hill to climb in a recount.
--Josh Marshall
Dems two seats away from controlling the Senate? CNN calls the Missouri Senate race for Democrat Claire McCaskill.
--Greg Sargent
In the post below, TPM Reader DH is right. But get on this. It looks like Virginia will decide the senate. Karl Rove has turned races like this around before. You don't know the lengths they'll go to. Believe me, you're not being imaginative enough.
Check out Josh Green's article on Karl Rove from two years ago. Look what Rove pulled off in the disputed Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice race. Read it.
Get ready for the bogus headlines on Drudge. The rumors and innuendo. Live boys and dead girls. Like I said, your imagination will only get you maybe half the way there. Get ready.
--Josh Marshall
TPM Reader DH on the Virginia senate race and probable recount ...
The Republicans have backed themselves into a corner in Virginia. If you're going to go to the mat with dirty tricks and voter suppression, your counting on staying under the rader and that once the election is over, folks will move on. If Allen contests the results of the election it changes the election from a single day event into a 3 or 4 week event, plenty of time to chase down those callerid numbers and phone bank contractors. Virginia isn't Ohio. It doesn't have Ken Blackwell to cover up the GOP shenanigans, and the state has already requested the FBI to look into them. The Allen campaign is going to have to make the choice of whether contesting the results is worth the chance of exposing criminal activity. Let's hope they choose to contest. It's our best hope of fully exposing the shenanigans of the GOP to the light of day and getting the mechanisms in place to prevent their use in the next election cycle.
Good point.
--Josh Marshall
More fun than the last two elections.
Late Update: Come to think of it. Make that the last three.
--Josh Marshall
Dem Senate candidate Jim Webb on CNN declaring victory before his supporters:
"I apppreciated what Senator Allen not long ago said when he came on the news and said, `We all need to respect the process in this country, the Democratic process.' We all go out, we vote, we argue, we vote, but also I'd like to say the votes are in. And we won."
Webb is leading 49.43%-49.36% with 99.47% precincts reporting.
--Greg Sargent
Is Rep. Pombo (R-CA) going to be another Abramoff victim?
McNerney (D) 49.3%, Pombo (R) 50.7%, with 31% of the votes counted.
That'd be a satisfying win.
Late Update: Ha. Looks like I had those numbers transposed. It's McNerney with the slightly higher number. Even better.
--Josh Marshall
With 76% reporting, Democrat Claire McCaskill has emerged with a very narrrow lead over Sen Jim Talent. Most of the late vote in Missouri breaks for the Democrat, so you would expect to see McCaskill stretching that lead as the night wears on. But no guarantees.
Late Update: CNN was reporting on its website a very narrow McCaskill lead, but the latest numbers--with just 71% reporting--show Talent up by 3 percentage points.
Later update: McCaskill back on top. With 80% reporting, she leads 49-48.
--David Kurtz
It's interesting. It didn't always show up in an obvious way in the polls. But I always thought the corruption issue had a pervasive, atmosphere effect, pulling down the Republicans and particularly the GOP Congress. At least the exit polls seem to show that that was true. Makes me really happy we launched Muckraker earlier this year.
I'll be curious to see how that conversation goes over the coming days, what the conventional wisdom becomes on the relative weight of Iraq, Bush and the corruption issue in ending the Republican majority in the House.
What do you think?
--Josh Marshall
The White House strategy for going forward is pretty apparent from this Reuters dispatch:
President George W. Bush, disappointed at the Democrats' seizure of the House of Representatives, will hold a news conference on Wednesday to urge his opponents to work with him, the White House said.The news conference was set for 1 p.m. EST (1800 GMT).
White House spokesman Tony Snow said the outcome of the elections, in which Democrats were projected to win control of the House and pick up several Senate seats, was "not what we would've hoped."
"But it also gets us to a point: Democrats have spent a lot of time complaining about what the president has done. This is an opportunity for them to kind of stand up," Snow said.
No concessions. No retreat. No surrender.
There will be much more to say about this in the coming hours and days, but it's not a bad time, even as the Senate remains in the balance, to emphasize a point we have made here from time to time during this campaign.
The election marks a beginning more than an end. Savor the moment tonight. But there is much to be done and no time to linger. Plans must be implemented. More battles waged. Our opponents have been planning for this moment for many months. They are ready. We must be, too.
--David Kurtz