Reading the tea leaves on whether the Bush Administration is considering a partition of Iraq:
[T]here are signs—slightly cryptic, but still worth noting—that the Bush Administration may be leaning towards partitioning Iraq. The main exhibit is an October 6 AP photograph of Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and President of Iraqi Kurdistan Massoud Barzani meeting in Irbil, the provincial seat. Rice and Barzani stood at a podium, flanked by a red, white, and green Kurdish tricolor flag. Neither the Iraqi flag, nor any other indication that the Secretary of State was in Iraq, was in view.. . .
Given that in September, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki issued a declaration that the Iraqi flag must be flown in all regions (Kurdish nationalists call the Iraqi flag “the flag of Ba'ath”), it's hard to believe that Rice's protocol people could let this one slip by accidentally. Imagine a foreign prime minister visiting America in 1861 and giving a speech while standing in front of a confederate flag—it's hard to imagine a Secretary of State could have missed such symbolism—and the Kurdish press certainly didn't.
--David Kurtz
Matt Yglesias, in response to an earlier post today, uses my reference to Republican attack ads against Max Cleland in the 2002 Senate campaign as a jumping off point to harangue Democrats for whining instead of playing hardball politics in return.
While I don't disagree with the underlying point that whining is an ineffective political response to political attacks, especially on national security issues, Matt's assertion that the 2002 attack ads didn't question Cleland's personal bravery is simply not correct.
Go look at the ad that I linked to. It begins and ends with courage. Personal courage is the entire theme of the ad. The sarcastic narrator concludes by saying, "Max Cleland says he has the courage to lead, but the record proves Max Cleland is just misleading."
Matt asks "what does Cleland's triple-amputee status have to do with it?" I'd say everything. I mean that quite literally. While attacking the personal courage of a triple amputee wounded in combat who perseveres to become a U.S. senator was a disgrace, it is the very fact of his courage that led to the GOP attack. Personal courage was perhaps Cleland's greatest political strength, hence the attack. In the same way, John Kerry was swiftboated specifically because of his stellar swiftboat record.
I agree that a good biography ought not immunize a candidate from attack on the issues. But Matt is being blindingly naive when he says the ads merely offered a "seriously distorted and underhanded view of the issues at hand." These ads weren't about the issues; they were about the person. They seriously distorted Max Cleland. That is not how it should work.
--David Kurtz
Whatever you do today, watch this ad. I initially thought it was a joke, but, no, it appears to be an actual ad the RNC is running against Democrat Harold Ford in the Tennessee Senate race.
My, oh, my.
Late Update: Here's more on the ad and Republican Senate candidate Bob Corker's attempt to distance himself from the RNC's pitch.
--David Kurtz
If the elections for Congress were held today, according to the new NEWSWEEK poll, 60 percent of white Evangelicals would support the Republican candidate in their district, compared to just 31 percent who would back the Democrat. To the uninitiated, that may sound like heartening news for Republicans in the autumn of their discontent. But if you’re a pundit, a pol, or a preacher, you know better. White Evangelicals are a cornerstone of the GOP’s base; in 2004, exit polls found Republicans carried white Evangelicals 3 to 1 over Democrats, winning 74 percent of their votes. In turn, Evangelicals carried the GOP to victory. But with a little more than two weeks before the crucial midterms, the Republican base may be cracking.
--David Kurtz
TPM Reader SR calls in with the latest on the GOP campaign against Mexicans ...
I live in Northern Virginia and I recently answered a telephone "survey". All the questions were pretty "normal" EXCEPT for one question about how George Allen did not believe illegal immigrants should receive Social Security benefits and other benefits, while Webb "believed" your taxes should be raised so that illegal immigrants could receive these benefits.Pretty funny, eh?
--Josh Marshall
Roskam: Crazy Arab Terrorists Want My Opponent Tammy Duckworth to Win (ChiTrib)...
Roskam told the crowd at the GOP's campaign headquarters that the "entire world is watching this campaign" against Democrat Tammy Duckworth for the west suburban seat being given up by retiring Rep. Henry Hyde.As proof, he said a radio producer told him that Al Jazeera--the Arabic language news network--had covered his debate with Duckworth last week. The crowd gasped.
"Now that's a real interesting group that would come out and cover the 6th Congressional District," Roskam observed. "Al Jazeera has an interest in who wins in the 6th Congressional District? I'm telling ya, let's send them an answer, whaddya say?" The crowd cheered.
Roskam is a former Tom DeLay aide who's repeatedly lied about his relationship with DeLay.
Not one of the good ones.
--Josh Marshall
You don't have to watch the GOP ads around the country too closely to see what their focus group research and polling is telling them is their only winning issue: Mexicans.
All over the country -- Democratic candidate X wants to raise your taxes to give Social Security to illegals. Check out the Duckworth-Roskam race in Illinois and about a hundred others around the country.
--Josh Marshall
It's amazing that Rep. Curt Weldon is still even in this race (Philly Daily News) ...
Sestak described how he'd gone to elementary school at St. Kevin's, right next door, and to Cardinal O'Hara High School, just down the road, before signing up for the Naval Academy during the Vietnam War."Unlike others, I decided I did want to serve my country," Sestak said.
That was apparently a bit too pointed for Weldon, who got a teaching deferment to avoid the Vietnam draft and never served in the military. Weldon said he had put himself in harm's way as a volunteer fireman, stuck between an oil tanker and a refinery fire.
"Have you ever faced a similar situation, Joe, or are you always in the admiral's quarters, drinking out of your wine goblets and being waited on by your sailor servants?" Weldon asked.
Most officers in the Navy get their first commission as an admiral, right?
So Weldon, private searches for WMD in Iraq, Mr. Able Danger, attacks his opponent for going outside the state to treat his daughter's brain tumor, revealer of the DOJ-liberal conspiracy. How is this goof still in Congress?
--Josh Marshall
TPM Reader RR on Iraq ...
Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld were in the front seat.
They drove the Iraq car off a cliff.
Then they turned to the Dems in the back seat.
And said the Dems couldn’t complain unless they could come up with a plan of their own.
The tragedy is that there is no rational hope for a plan (any plan) that will work well. When you’ve driven the car off the cliff, your range of options is quite limited. We’re in the hands of gravity at this point.
Pretty close to the mark. I've got my own analogy. Monday, after I sign back on.
--Josh Marshall
There's really no way to calculate the monetary cost to the GOP of the recent sex-related scandals involving GOP congressmen, but you get hints of the toll here and there.
I already touched on the $271,000 the NRCC spent yesterday to boost Joe Negron, the sacrificial lamb in the race for Mark Foley's seat, who doesn't even get to have his own name on the ballot. That's money that clearly would have been used elsewhere were it not for the page eruption.
A couple of days ago, the NRCC suddenly plowed $225,000 into the NV-2, an open seat that heretofore had not garnered much attention. Why the sudden interest? Well, that's Jim Gibbons' seat, and while Gibbons is running for governor of Nevada, his late night carousing and alleged assault on a cocktail waitress are probably not leaving voters in that district with a warm fuzzy GOP feeling.
A quarter million here and a quarter million there, and pretty soon you're talking real money.
--David Kurtz
The National Education Association has jumped into the mid-terms in a big way, making major independent expenditures in three congressional districts.
As TPM's Election Central first reported a couple of days ago, the NV-3 held by Republican Jon Porter is looking like it's in play. To aid the effort, the NEA Fund for Children and Public Education has dropped $378,000 into that race.
In the AZ-5, the NEA is getting serious about knocking off Rep. J.D. Hayworth, with a $491,000 push. And in the NM-1, where Patricia Madrid and Heather Wilson are in a tight race, the NEA has put down $200,000.
The point here is not to document every last dime being spent, but to get a sense of when the battle is being joined, who is engaging in the fight, and where the stakes are the highest.
[Ed. Note: I thought it went without saying that the NEA, the teachers union, is siding with the Dems in these races.]
--David Kurtz
Late Friday, the NRCC reported another huge expenditure on congressional campaigns nationwide: almost $8.5 million. That brings the total spent by the NRCC since September 1 to nearly $50 million.
Here are the highlights of yesterday's buy:
$870,711 against Tammy Duckworth in the IL-6;$681,919 against Lois Murphy in the PA-6;
$690,504 against Joe Sestak in the PA-7;
$676,781 against Patrick Murphy in the PA-8;
$561,110 against Zack Space in the OH-18;
$470,648 against Baron Hill in the IN-9;
$424,786 against Ken Lucas in the KY-4;
$414,826 against Patricia Madrid in the NM-1;
$351,599 against Patty Wetterling in the MN-6;
$271,000 to try to salvage the FL-16, Mark Foley's old district;
There are some additional smaller expenditures in some of the races I listed above, but those are major buys by the NRCC yesterday. So much money; so little time.
--David Kurtz
Unlikeliest political prop of the week, via the Atlanta Journal-Constitution:
Former U.S. senator Max Cleland is in Montana, campaigning for Democrat Jon Tester, who’s running against GOP incumbent U.S. Sen. Conrad Burns. This in today’s Billings Gazette:“During his speech, Cleland made light of his own amputations by grabbing Tester’s left hand, which is missing three fingers lost in a meat grinder.
“‘At least he won’t be putting his hand in the till like someone we know,’ Cleland said, referring to Burns’ campaign donations of about $150,000 from Jack Abramoff, his clients and associates.”
A photo of the exchange is here. If the Dems take Congress, that image will bookend the era of Bush mendacity for me, along with the attack ad the GOP ran against the triple-amputee Cleland in the 2002 election, questioning his courage during the run-up to the Iraq War.
--David Kurtz
Quote of the week:
"The higher you climb up the tree, the more your ass shows."
--Richard Armitage, on the media attention that goes with rising up the ranks in Washington
--David Kurtz
Josh is right. The news cycle has inverted and started to feed on itself. Here are two pieces that illustrate the point.
Exhibit A is an AP story headlined "Sex Scandals Dominate Midterm Elections." (Subhede: "Will election be a referendum on men behaving badly?"). It's the sort of breezy, pox on both your houses roundup that tries to pass for political analysis. Are sex scandals dominating the midterms, or is Iraq? And are these scandals really about the sex, or about violence and abuse of power?
Rep. Don Sherwood cheated on his wife, sure, but he also allegedly tried to choke his mistress. Rep. Jim Gibbons may have been drinking and flirting with an off-duty cocktail waitress, but there's a difference of more than just degree between flirting with, or even boinking, a young lovely and pushing her up against the wall of an empty parking garage and threatening her unless she consents, as she alleges.
There's also a difference, and this obviously can't be said often enough, between being gay and being a serial seducer of young male pages. The AP story says the only thing missing from the Foley sex scandal is the sex. Huh? Someone needs to go back and re-read the clips.
Exhibit B is in the Style section of the Washington Post today, a piece on how the term "October Surprise" has been wrung of practically any meaning: "Over time the phrase has been bandied about and overused to the point that it now means any startling surprise from any direction that might somehow affect the outcome of an election." True enough, but reporting about the reporting is a indication of a news cycle that, in the minds of editors and reporters, is peetering out.
The low-hanging fruit of the Foley scandal has been picked, and it's back to the hard work of reporting--unless you prefer scavenging among the rotting fruit that fell to the ground.
--David Kurtz
Rep. LaHood (R-IL): We canned the Dem staffer as payback for releasing the Cunningham report.
--Josh Marshall
This is no more than a gut sense and a reaction to the reverberations I can feel in the ground. But my gut sense is that this week the conventional wisdom or perhaps Democratic optimism reached into the realm of irrational exuberance. And my own not particularly scientific perusal of the polls suggests some slackening of the strong trend toward the Democrats we've seen over the last three weeks.
Don't get me wrong. The polls still paint an extremely bleak picture for the Republicans. Race after race that should have been safe for the GOP has crept within the margin of error.
Over the last couple months we've seen the campaign knocked this way and that by a series of strong pivots, pendulum swings that have driven the news for two or more weeks. Unfortunately for the GOP, most have swung against them. There was the pre-9/11 uptick in GOP fortunes, minute but real and detectable in the polls. Then the collapse of support with the NIE revelation, the Woodward book and mounting chaos in Iraq. And finally Foley.
We've got little more than two weeks left before the big day. But the news cycle the campaign feeds on has seemed a bit aimless over the last week. In fact it's started to feed on itself. And by that I mean that the major campaign issue has been how badly the campaign is going for the Republicans. But that type of inverted news cycle tends to feed on itself and like a bubble, burst.
Nature abhors a vacuum, and so much intensity and no news to chew on is exactly that.
I get the sense that this campaign, even with so little time left, has one more big jolt left in it.
What do you think? And what might it be?
--Josh Marshall
They know no limits watch (WaPo) ...
The Republican chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence suspended a mid-level Democratic staffer Tuesday based on a suspicion that he may have been connected to the leak of a politically damaging intelligence report almost a month ago, according to Republican and Democratic congressional sources.The action by Rep. Peter Hoekstra (R-Mich.), which has drawn sharp criticism from Democratic panel members, was described by legislators of both parties as another example of the increased partisan infighting that has damaged the workings of the intelligence panel during this election year.
"The chairman's unilateral action is without basis and an abuse of his power to provide security accesses," Rep. Jane Harman (D-Calif.), ranking Democrat on the panel, said yesterday. "There is no evidence to suggest that the professional staff member in question did anything wrong," she added.
Late yesterday, Washington lawyer Jonathan Turley sent a letter to Hoekstra and Harman saying he represented the staff member involved, Larry Hanauer, whose name had been leaked to the media. Turley wrote that he wanted an expedited review of his client's role "to clear his name at the earliest possible date." He said there was "not a single scintilla of evidence suggesting that Mr. Hanauer had any role in the leaking of the NIE," or National Intelligence Estimate, and that he was drafting a sworn statement to that effect.
Adding to the political overtones, several Republican lawmakers issued news releases yesterday condemning leaks and praising Hoekstra -- including House Majority Leader John A. Boehner (Ohio), House Majority Whip Roy Blunt (Mo.) and Sen. John Cornyn (Tex.).
If they do crash and burn on November 7th, nothing could be sweeter. But anything's possible and nothing should be taken for granted.
--Josh Marshall
A short while before the Foley story broke, I was putting together a post about a contest the Sunlight Foundation is running called Congress in 30 seconds. They have a series of web gizmos at the site that allow you to splice together your own 30 TV spot, with film clips and sound and text on the screen. The idea is to create an ad showing what you think members of Congress spend their day doing.
The point behind the exercise is something they call their 'punch-clock campaign'. They're trying to get members of Congress to agree to make their schedules available to the public. So you could go online and look and see what Senator Jones was doing last Thursday. Well, he was in this committee meeting, then he met with Jack Abramoff and then later he went over to the party committee office and called up contributors to pony up money for next year's reelection campaign.
You get the idea. And if you know how Congress works you know that this is pretty much like getting vampires to sign up for daylight. But you've got to start somewhere. And they've already gotten 42 candidates to sign up. So far no one who's actually in office, as far as I know, has signed on the dotted line. They're actually giving bounties to members of the public who can get officeholders or candidates to sign up. Actually a thousand bucks if you can get a rep or senator to sign on the dotted line.
Anyway, as I was saying, when I started writing this post it was just before the Foley business hit. And then after, well ... somehow the idea of what congressmen spend their days doing just took on a whole new light. As far as I know none of the sample clips they have that you can work with is of a fifty-something horndog jamming away at his blackberry on the floor of the House as the sweat trickles down his brow. But who knows. Maybe they'll add that. Or, actually, I think you can upload your own clips.
Anyway, it's fun, so give it a try. The entrant in the 30 spot contest gets $5000 and there's only like a week or so left before they choose the winner.
--Josh Marshall
No depths to how low they'll go to salvage their power (from the Utica Observer-Dispatch) ...
Three Central New York television stations have chosen not to run an advertisement from the National Republican Congressional Committee that alleges Michael Arcuri made calls to a sex hotline while at a conference in New York City.Local television station WKTV and Syracuse's WSTQ and WSTM are not running the ad.
“We rejected the ad,” said WKTV Vice President and General Manager Vic Vetters. “This is based on several reviews and discussions with our legal council.”
Democratic Oneida County District Attorney Michael Arcuri is in a highly competitive race for the 24th District Congressional District seat against Republican state Sen. Ray Meier.
Documents provided by both the NRCC and the Arcuri campaign show a call lasting less than a minute to an 800 number that is now a sex line.
Arcuri said that number was dialed by accident by Sean Byrne, the executive director of the New York Prosecutor Training Institute, who was meeting with him and others in the hotel room. Byrne also said that was the case, and records show immediately following the call to the sex line, he called the same seven digits, but with a 518 area code, not an 800 prefix.
A Meier spokeswoman said Meier had called the NRCC and demanded that they not run the ad. NRCC spokesman Ed Patru said his organization is not allowed to coordinate with candidates.
It'll get much worse.
--Josh Marshall
TPM Reader NB catches us up on the final Burns/Tester debate in Montana ...
I wish everyone in the nation could be watching the Burns-Tester debate right now just to see how much point-blank honesty devastates the GOP Party line on Iraq. When John Tester listed the things that have gone wrong in Iraq, the best Burns could come back with was that things were "going well" in Afghanistan, and that there are some areas that are almost free of the Taliban. I truly do feel sorry for the old man.
Does anyone know if CSPAN is carrying this?
--Josh Marshall
A new, hard to watch, but powerful ad Michael J. Fox cut for Claire McCaskill, Democratic senate candidate in Missouri who's trying to unseat Sen. Jim Talent (R-MO).
They're currently running neck and neck, with maybe the slightest of margins in McCaskill's favor.
More ads to come.
--Josh Marshall
Gettin' in his face ...
Harold Ford Jr. showed up uninvited at a campaign event for rival Republican Bob Corker at a private charter airstrip in Memphis this morning. Corker had scheduled the media event earlier this week.News reporters were surprised when Ford's tour bus pulled up at the event and, apparently staff at Wilson Air were surprised as well, as they tried to steer media inside the property for the Corker news conference.
"You need to get this bus off our premises please. Right now," said one Wilson Air staffer.
Corker instead, opted to come out and talk with Ford directly while the cameras were rolling. What followed was a tense confrontation between the two, caught on tape.
See the rest here.
--Josh Marshall
President Bush recess appoints a new pro-industry chief to the Mine Safety and Health Administration. Shouldn't be a problem since mines are so safe already.
--Josh Marshall
Damn. Here's a story that must have about a billion volts of charge in it.
Time says the FBI is now investigating Rep. Jane Harman (D-CA) as part of their expanded AIPAC investigation. They are, says Time, "examining whether Rep. Jane Harman of California and the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) may have violated the law in a scheme to get Harman reappointed as the top Democrat on the House intelligence committee."
--Josh Marshall
A woman whose brother is heading out for a second tour to Iraq writes an emotional letter about why she's backing Dem vet double-amputee and Illinois House candidate Tammy Duckworth.
--Greg Sargent
CNN has a story up on its site, the headline of which reads: "GOP terrorism ad sparks Democratic furor."
The first grafs read ...
Republicans took a page from President Johnson's Cold War-era presidential campaign with an advertisement set to air this weekend called "The Stakes," which prominently features al Qaeda leaders threatening to kill Americans."Just like in the Cold War, the reality is that our nation is at war with an ideology and not a country," said Republican National Committee spokeswoman Tracey Schmitt.
Democrats, however, have called the commercial, which is reminiscent of Johnson's 1964 "Daisy" ad, a "desperate ploy to once again try to scare voters."
The advertisement, which is available on the Republican National Committee Web site, is scheduled to run on national news networks Sunday. Republicans are emphasizing national security and terrorism issues in their bid to maintain control of Congress with about two weeks before the November midterms.
The answer to this is not outrage. And the answer's not to say this sort of ad is out of bounds. The correct answer is contempt and ridicule. The president and his party just don't have any credibility on this issue left. And Democrats need to act with the confidence that voters know that too.
DHS is run like a joke.
Iraq, unquestionably, has increased the threat of terrorism rather than diminished it.
The president's whole approach to protecting the nation is a bust. He's spent hundreds of billions and thousands of lives on threats that didn't exist and ignored ones that did.
Doing some more cut and paste of bin Laden just doesn't cut it any more.
The key here is the meta-message behind the way the fight between Republicans and Democrats plays out. Do Democrats cower and complain? Or do they treat the president's gambits on national security with contempt, since that's actually the latent view of the majority of the country. This is another example of what a couple years ago I called the Republicans' Bitch-Slap theory of electoral politics.
Folks in the country know there's a bin Laden. They remember 9/11. That's not what this is about. The Republicans are trying to bait Democrats into looking weak by crying foul and expressing outrage. The best response politically is the truest substantively: ridicule and contempt. The president's policies on national security have been a joke. The country knows it. They're there. So just say it.
--Josh Marshall
A new page incident? Rep. Weller (R-IL) says he's referred one to the Ethics Committee.
--Josh Marshall
And they just keep on coming.
Six new House races which were once secure wins for the GOP have suddenly become competitive for Dems in the last week alone.
--Greg Sargent
It's not quite the same as the stay the course, don't stay the course Corker mumbojumbo, but this editorial in one Virginia paper has a pretty good run-down of Sen. Allen's (R-VA) flip-flop on this issue.
--Josh Marshall
Wow, that was quick.
Seems like Corker down in Tennessee has a serious case of flip-flopitis on the 'stay the course'.
See the contest rules below. Everyone can play.
--Josh Marshall
Okay, here's our project for the day here at TPM.
Last summer the White House made the case to congressional Republicans that the best way for them to weather the Iraq storm politically was to embrace the war and the president's policy and try to make the debate into one of "staying the course" or "cutting and running."
As you can see by this post below, Rep. Sweeney (R-NY) did as he was told and now seems to regret it since he's now saying "I think that the strategy of 'staying the course' is not a strategy at all. It doesn't work."
A lot of GOP reps made similar statements a few months ago and if you'll remember they all vote for that Iraq war resolution. And I really doubt Sweeney's the only one to be caught in such an egregious flip flop.
Politically, of course, that's very damaging. But this goes beyond gotcha politics. Even for those who don't support a rapid withdrawal from Iraq, it was crystal clear this summer that the president's Iraq policy was a disaster. It was the height of cynicism to embrace that policy on the argument (plausible at the time, not so plausible now) that it was the best strategy for the mid-term election. These folks deserve to be punished at the polls for that cynicism when American troops are dying in the field and Iraq is becoming a charnel house.
So, crank up the google or nexis, and you take a look at see if you can find similar 'stay the course' quotes from members of Congress in competitive elections. If you can find quotes like that and a more recent flip flop quote, a la Rep. Sweeney (R-NY), we'll give you a brand new TPM T-shirt for labors and a big thank you online. (We'll give away up to five T-shirts.)
--Josh Marshall
Last throes, but whose?
The Shiite militia run by anti-American cleric Muqtada al-Sadr seized total control of the southern Iraqi city of Amarah on Friday in one of the boldest acts of defiance yet by one of the country's powerful, unofficial armies, witnesses and police said.
More here.
--Josh Marshall
A Nevada gubernatorial hopeful says he did "nothing wrong" in a series of late-night events that resulted in a panicked woman calling 911 from the bathroom of a Las Vegas Starbucks. That and other news of the day in today's Daily Muck.
--Justin Rood
Eh ... times change.
Rep. John Sweeney (R), 6/8/06: "Zarqawi represents the insidious forces that we are fighting in the War on Terror. This is a critical example of why we must stay the course and finish this mission."
Rep. John Sweeney (R), 10/18/06 : "I think that the strategy of 'staying the course' is not a strategy at all. It doesn't work. There are going to have to be adjustments in any war if that is the case."
For staying the course before he was against it, I guess.
On a more substantive and serious note, the White House got virtually every member of Congress to go out and embrace the Iraq War last summer. And for one reason. Because Rove and rest of the crew at the White House convinced them it was best political bet. They really should be made now to pay a price for that cynicism.
--Josh Marshall
If you're a GOP candidate with your back to the wall, it's probably not a good idea to say, "read my lips." Brings back bad memories.
The GOP candidate in question here is not George H.W. Bush -- it's Senator Mike DeWine, who's fallen far behind Dem challenger Sherrod Brown. Today a dozen Ohio TV stations yanked a GOP ad attacking Brown, mainly because the ad was demonstrably false. The NRCC sank over $700,000 into the ad. It said Brown "didn't pay his unemployment taxes for 13 years." Even though the Brown campaign produced proof that the claim was false, the NRCC hung in there and claimed they weren't fudging the facts. Still, the networks disagreed and killed the ad.
But the story doesn't end there. At tonight's debate between Brown and DeWine, the ad came up again. And DeWine -- never one to give up when the going gets tough -- hung on to the claim that the ad was true. And he compounded the absurdity of the whole story by saying: "The ad, Sherrod, is true. Read my lips. The ad is true."
Read his lips.
--Greg Sargent
Lemme say a few more words about John Kerry and this issue of giving to the party committees in the final weeks.
First, John Kerry has done a lot of fundraising and contributing for candidates around the country in the last two years. Here's a page they've just put up on their site making that case.
Second, for all the officeholders now getting dunned for extra money, this is a unique situation. In many cases, these are folks who've played by the established rules of the road, ponied up this or that amount. So at least from me, the issue isn't that these folks are party giving scofflaws or deadbeats.
Yet it is, as I said, a unique situation. We don't know what will happen on the 7th. But it looks like the Democrats may have an opportunity for a historic tidal wave type election, like 1974 and 1994. But they won't be able to take maximum advantage of the opportunity without a lot more money right now to fund late-campaign pushes for second and third tier candidates around the country.
So, with Kerry, it's not that he hasn't already done a lot. It's that he's sitting on a lot of money. And he can do even more. And with these stakes, he should.
But Kerry's only one guy. And this applies to lots of members of the House and Senate. While I think he should pony up even more, nothing I'm saying here should be construed to mean that he's uniquely the source of the problem.
Finally, there appears to be a dispute about how much Kerry has given to the DSCC (the senate campaign committee) this cycle. The DSCC records I referenced earlier say he's given $15,000. He says he's given $1 million. It's late and I haven't been able to speak with all the parties involved. But I've looked in this and I believe the issue is this: Kerry gave $1 million to the DSCC just after the 2004 election to help the retire its debt. They, I think, don't see that as money for this cycle. He does.
Presumably the parties in question can address that particular question tomorrow.
But here's the bottom line. Candidates sitting on a lot of money should be sending more to the party committees. That's the only efficient and quick way right now to move the money where it's needed. Kerry's folks say he's already done a ton. I don't know all the particulars. But I think it's true. (See the Kerry page to make up your own mind.)
To me at least this isn't about what's come before. It's about right now. More money is needed. Now. And those who are sitting on a lot of it should give more, regardless of what they've done to this point.
To those whom much is given, much is expected in return.
--Josh Marshall
TPM Reader RM has had enough ...
I am disabled by a spinal injury and unable to work, yet out of my meager funds I have scraped up $20 and $25 amounts to send to various campaigns around the country that need all the support they can get. These are amounts I can ill afford, but I feel we absolutely must free ourselves from the shameless conduct of the Republican controlled Congress and their staggeringly incompetent President.So I am deeply pained by Democratic fat cats that just can't bear to part with any of their millions of dollars, thank you, or those who only make token payments.
Are these the ones who want to be our Democratic party leaders?
Damn it, if I can do it, why can't they?
I'm not sure there's much I can add.
--Josh Marshall
When it comes to Republicans and corruption and sex crimes, I guess they figure, better to burn out than fade away ...
A casino cocktail waitress told police a drunken U.S. Rep. Jim Gibbons grabbed her, shoved her against a wall and threatened her in a Las Vegas parking garage after she rebuffed his advances at a restaurant Friday night.But Chrissy Mazzeo, 32, told investigators she did not want to press charges against the Reno congressman "mainly because of who he is. 'Cause of who he is, and I just don't want to go up against something like that."
Gibbons, 61, the Republican candidate for governor, denied her version of the story and told police he merely helped a woman to her vehicle and grabbed her arm when she tripped and fell.
Here's the rest.
--Josh Marshall
That's one way to cover it up.
The House Appropriations Committee had hired 60 extra investigators to deal with the unprecedented level of corruption in federal appropriations these days.
Jerry Lewis, Chairman of the Committee (who's himself being investigated and has racked up $800,000 in legal fees) just fired them all.
--Josh Marshall
Jack Abramoff, may be heading off to prison soon, but that doesn't mean he'll stop cooperating. Prosecutors have asked that he be placed in a convenient location, so that they can continue hanging out together.
--Paul Kiel
Did a second Hastert staffer know about Foley's pursuit of House pages? That's apparently what former House Clerk Jeff Trandahl told the ethics committee today, according to ABC News.
Update: CNN adds more details.
--Paul Kiel
There are some questions that Rep. Sue Kelly (R-NY) really doesn't want to answer.
So much so that she ran away -- literally ran away -- from a local news crew.
--Paul Kiel
If you're wondering why the DSCC and Harry Reid are leaning on Kerry and Bayh in particular, this may be the answer.
So far Kerry has given the senate election committee $15,000 and Bayh $30,000.
Just for some random points of comparison Biden ($230,000), Feinstein ($1,106,800), Rockefeller ($325,000), Salazar ($116,000).
I know Kerry's done a ton of campaigning for candidates around the country. I think he's a great Democrat. But he's sitting on a lot of money. And the DSCC could do a lot right now with money from these two.
--Josh Marshall
Former House Clerk Jeff Trandahl testified before House ethics committee this morning, but he's still refusing to say publicly what he knows. Even though it seems he knows a lot.
--Paul Kiel
Come to Jesus watch ...
Top Democrats are trying to convince two potential presidential candidates with flush campaign bank accounts to part with as much as $1 million each to finance the DSCC s late October effort to pull six Senate seats from Republican control. Sen. Evan Bayh's 2008 re-election committee reported $10.6 million cash on hand through the end of 9/06. On Monday, following a conversation with Min. Leader Sen. Harry Reid, Bayh directed his donors to raise $100K for the DSCC and intends deliver the checks by the beginning of next week.
The rest at Hotline Blog.
--Josh Marshall
Yesterday, the Dems spent nearly $12 million on 32 races. See our rundown of the big buys here.
--Paul Kiel
DHS decides to extend contract wtih 'hookergate' limo agency.
I guess Duke and his pals still have some juice.
--Josh Marshall
No doubt the first of many GOP voter suppression operations to be revealed in this cycle.
--Josh Marshall
From the Washington Post ...
A retired priest from Malta acknowledged today that he had intimate contact with a youthful Mark Foley in the mid-1960s that involved nudity and -- on at least one occasion -- "light touching," but denied that he had "sexual intercourse" with him.The Rev. Anthony Mercieca, in a telephone interview with The Washington Post from the Maltese island of Gozo, said he was surprised that his long-ago relationship with Foley had become linked to the former Congressman's troubles. Foley, a former altar boy at the Sacred Heart Catholic church where Mercieca served in the mid-1960s, resigned from Congress after reports about sexually intimate electronic messages he had sent to Congressional pages.
...In the interview, Mercieca, 69, said that issues like molestation and sexual harassment are "in the eye of the beholder," and that Foley -- who was 12 or 13 at the time -- might have interpreted some of their contact "the wrong way."
"I was a little out of myself there," Mercieca said, from his use of medication following what the Sarasota paper described as a nervous breakdown. "The whole idea is . . . that I did something that he did not like, but at the time he did not say anything."
Foley's claims of abuse were treated with a lot of skepticism, given the timing of the disclosure and coming on the heels of rehab treatment for alcoholism friends and colleagues didn't believe he suffered from. But it seems like he wasn't making this part up.
--Josh Marshall
Bush campaigns for Rep. Sherwood (R-PA), congressman accused of choking his mistress.
A fellow pro-torture candidate?
--Josh Marshall
Rep. Weldon (R-PA) reveals secret source -- an unidentified man at a gym named "Grumpy" -- who says Weldon's opponents are behind the DOJ corruption investigation that recently led to multiple FBI raids in two states.
--Josh Marshall
Here's a good question asked by several TPM Readers.
How do you find out how much money a particular officeholder has stashed away?
(What is this about? See the post below.)
It's actually pretty easy.
1. Go to fec.gov
2. On the left hand column, click "Campaign Finance Reports and Data"
3. On that page go down to the second item which reads "View/Download Electronic Filings"
4. Now you'll get a fill out form with all sorts 
of questions, state, kind of committee, etc. In most cases you don't need to fill those out. Just go to the fill-in line that reads "Partial Name of Committee". If you know the name of the officeholder's election committee great. But if you don't, in most cases, you can just type in their last name. And that will bring up the right data.
5. Click 'Send Query' and that should bring up a bunch of filings you can either download or view. You're looking for the most recent filing. That should be at or near the top and it should be called "Oct Quarterly". That's the filing from October 15th. And it covers up through the end of September. In a hotly contested race, that number might now be out of date. But in one where the officeholder isn't facing that much of a fight, it should give you a pretty accurate idea of how much cash they're sitting on.
6. Okay, now you've clicked 'view' on Oct Quarterly. Scroll down to the "Summary Page" and that will show you a series of numbers. Look at Item 8, "Cash on Hand at Close of Reporting Period", that's your number. In many cases it'll be hundreds of thousands or even many millions of dollars.
Getting this number is actually really easy. I've tried to be as specific and detailed as possible in these instructions to avoid any confusion. But the whole thing takes maybe thirty seconds.
Late Update: Turns out Chris Bowers has already done some of the work for you. He's posted this list of 45 Dem reps who are literally running unopposed this cycle. Together they're sitting on over $26 million. Half a dozen of them have more than a million dollars each.
Even Later Update: TPM Reader TP suggests an easier way ...
The FEC.GOV site is archaic. Here's a much, much easier way:1. Go to http://WWW.OPENSECRETS.ORG. There's a form right on the front of the page; enter your zip code and your representative pops up. Click on them and you get a summary page with their cash on hand, taken from the FEC filings.
2. Go to http://WWW.CQPOLITICS.COM/06map.html. Can you find yourself on a map? CQ will tell you whether your rep is in a real race.
My rep's Danny K. Davis, smack in the middle of Chicago. Not a real race. He's got $500k on hand. Here's my question: do I call? What specifically should I ask? Durbin and Obama aren't up this cycle. Should I call them? I want to help!
--Josh Marshall
A TPM Reader has an idea ...
Call your Democratic rep, senator, who have tons of money with no race. Ask them if they are planning to donate it to the DSCC or DCCC. If not, why not. Print their answers, phone numbers, emails, etc
This sounds like a good idea. Give 'em a ring. Most Democratic incumbents aren't facing a tough fight this year. Some are barely in a race at all. How much should they fork over? A third? I'm sure.
Why don't you ask? Give them a call and ask. There are well over two hundred Democratic incumbents in Congress. And it's not like they can take a lot of time to think about it. We're under three weeks till the big day. Time is running out.
Get in touch with your senator or rep and ask them. Let us know what you hear and we'll share it with our readers.
(ed.note: Where to call? The proper place to call is the campaign office of your officeholder, not their congressional office. The staff at the congressional office won't be able to give answers about campaign money. It's against the law. The phone number and site of each campaign should be easy to find through Google. But if you can't find it, I think the congressional office is allowed to give you the number of the campaign.)
--Josh Marshall
The U.S. sent Mahar Arar off to be tortured in a Syrian prison, but even though he's been exonerated, they still won't take him off the no-fly list. That and other news of the day in today's Daily Muck.
--Paul Kiel
Did the NRCC tip their hand? The NRCC dropped $163,000 into the PA 4 race -- Hart (R) v. Altmire (D) -- after spending a little under $11,000 on a poll. It sounds like they didn't like what they heard from that poll.
Just a few days ago, the Altmire campaign released its own poll that had him trailing Hart by a mere four points -- Hart (48%), Altmire (44%). It sounds like the NRCC poll wasn't much better. Maybe not even as good.
Based on this CQ has bumped the race from Republican Favored to Leans Republican. So Hart is still favored. But it's a real race.
If I were Altmire's folks I'd certainly want to make the point that DeLay and Hastert put Hart on the Ethics Committee after they purged it of non-loyalists. They knew she would be a rubber stamp vote for DeLay and other House GOPers who got into trouble. That's telling.
Another on our list of races we're eyeing closely. Here's Hart's website and here's Altmire's.
--Josh Marshall
If these Constituent Dynamics polls of New York state House races are close to accurate we could really see a blow-out in the New York congressional delegation. Walsh in CD 25, down by 8 points; Kuhl in CD 29, down by 12 points; Sweeney in CD 20, down by 13 points; Kelly in CD 19, down by 9 points.
I think the Constituent Dynamics poll is a Robo-call. So that puts a certain level of question mark after the result. But those numbers don't include the open Boerhlert seat where Michael Arcuri appears to be running strong or Tom Reynolds who the same poll had down by 17 points only last week.
--Josh Marshall
He must think it's worth it. House Appropriations Committee Chairman Jerry Lewis has spent almost $800,000 of campaign dollars to the lawyers defending him in the ever-expanding Duke Cunningham investigation.
Good he's not in charge of where money gets spent or anything.
--Josh Marshall
I really don't think 'I can't talk about it' plays well in a close fought election, does it?
Republican U.S. Senate nominee Bob Corker said Wednesday he was forbidden from talking about a settlement in a lawsuit that challenged how a city conservation easement became an access road to commercial property his company sold while he was mayor."We are not even allowed" to talk about it, Corker said, citing a deal between "number of parties that have been involved" as plaintiffs and defendants.
The agreement in the three-year environmental lawsuit has extended the mystery for voters in his race against Democratic U.S. Rep. Harold Ford Jr. of Memphis. The Democrat's campaign seized on the issue Wednesday.
"It was public land belonging to the people of Chattanooga and Tennessee. They deserve to know if Bob Corker destroyed it to make millions and then wrote a check to avoid having to tell the truth about it in a deposition," Ford campaign spokesman Tom Lee said.
But don't worry. Corker insists the need for secrecy is "absolutely" not political.
--Josh Marshall
TPM Reader RT wonders ...
At some point, in the vast TPM Media empire, you need to start taking bets on when the OBL video will be released. I'm thinking the Friday morning before the election. That will suck all the air out of the Sunday shows and put the kibosh on the Dem Wave story. You know OBL is coming. He has to. He hasn't sat out an election since he bombed the Cole. The only question is will it mobilize the base more than piss the Dem Wave off more?
Sounds right to me. Clearly, Osama can't keep a regular video taping operation going while he's on the run or living in that duplex in Quetta or the brownstone in Karachi. But he does seem to be able to put out video clips at key moments on the Jihadist version of youtube. So when does it drop?
--Josh Marshall
Yet another classic John Doolittle moment. He attacks his opponent for supporting the ACLU, which has defended child sex predators. Meanwhile, Doolittle himself was a character witness for a dentist o